How much did Modi Government Boosted Indian Economy. A 5 year Report on NDA's Nation Development  Report-card.

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 The 2014 general election was held in nine phases from 7 April to 12 May, to constitute the 16th Lok Sabha. The results of the election were announced on 16 May 2014. On 20 May 2014, a meeting of the parliamentary party of BJP was organised at the Central Hall of the Parliament of India and Narendra Modi was elected as its leader. Subsequently, BJP president Rajnath Singh along with other leaders of the ally parties of NDA, met President Pranab Mukherjee at Rashtrapati Bhavan and handed over the support letter of 335 members of parliament and claimed for the government formation. Following this, Mukherjee invited Modi and under the powers vested on him under Constitution of India, appointed him as the Prime Minister of India and sought his advice for the names of the members of the council of ministers of his government. On 9 November 2014, there was an expansion and reshuffling in his cabinet and 21 new cabinet ministers were sworn in.

Rural economy has remained under stress amid droughts in many states

(% YoY)

Although there is some evidence to suggest that rural fortunes may be reviving now, it is not clear whether the revival will sustain, and if it will persuade the government to give up on its ambitions of an expansive farm support regime.
The other notable achievement of the Indian economy over the past few years has been the remarkable rise in foreign flows, and in particular, in foreign direct investment (FDI). From being considered to be among the Fragile Five among emerging markets five years ago, the Indian economy has emerged as a top investment destination, with a ratings upgrade from Moody’s Investor Services last year.

India has received a relatively larger share of FDI inflows under Modi government.

The domestic investment cycle has however disappointed, and so have exports. While the government had the good fortune of lower oil prices for most of its term, it had also had the misfortune of inheriting a messy bad debt problem, which have slowed down investments. The slowdown in exports, particularly in small-scale labour intensive sectors, may however have been a self-inflicted wound. These sectors bore the brunt of the government’s attempts to formalize the Indian economy.

High oil prices concerned U.S. President Donald J. Trump blasted Middle East oil producers on Twitter.

--The Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) headquarters in Vienna on June 19, 2018.

“The global economy has actually done better than most people expected in the most recent years, which obviously means you have higher demand. As a result, you have a tighter oil market than you probably would have predicted a couple years ago,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

And in reality, it’s unlikely that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would bend to Trump’s demand — which they likely couldn't do, even if they were so inclined.

-U.S. Dependence on Middle East

“There’s really very little amount of spare capacity among OPEC members, and U.S. producers are already limited by pipeline capacity, especially in West Texas,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

“His hardline on Iran is going to cost Americans more at the pump,” DeHaan said. As of now, he estimated that the Iran effect only is contributing about a nickel or so towards today’s prices on the average gallon of gas. “It’s more of a risk premium than anything else,” he said.

But DeHaan predicted that could change after OPEC meets later this year. “I think at that meeting in late November they’ll very closely look at the impact the sanctions are having,” he said, and any surprises could trigger a market shock.

Of course, if Iranian production continued unabated, this risk premium — and the threat of higher prices down the road — would no longer be in play, but experts concede this is unlikely to happen.

“One way he could try to push prices down would be to go easy on Iran,” Kirkegaard said. “He can’t have his cake and eat it too, so to speak.”

 Trump China Trade War
Getting Worse

China said Tuesday it would retaliate for President Trump’s latest tariff salvo, risking further U.S. trade actions that could result in what some analysts are calling an economic Cold War.

By next week, the United States and China appear likely to be on the brink of slapping tariffs on their entire goods trade, which exceeds $635 billion annually.

Chinese officials in Beijing said they would meet the 10 percent tariffs that Trump announced Monday on nearly $200 billion in imports with similar measures on $60 billion in U.S. products. If that occurs, Trump has said he will “immediately” begin the process of applying tariffs to all Chinese items entering the United States.

The showdown comes as Chinese officials were preparing to travel to Washington for new talks aimed at resolving the months-old trade dispute. Negotiations earlier this year failed to make much progress and it remains unclear whether Chinese officials will resume bargaining in the wake of the president’s latest escalation.

As hopes dim for an early end to the conflict, the likelihood grows that the two countries are moving toward some sort of commercial divorce. Some analysts anticipate an economic partition reminiscent of the globe-splitting divide between the United States and the Soviet Union following World War II.

“We’re probably talking about a world with two centers: a China-centered economic domain . . . and another centered on the United States,” said Aaron Friedberg, a professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, who handled China policy as an aide to Vice President Richard B. Cheney in the George W. Bush administration. “It’s heading toward a bifurcated global economy.”

"That shows you how complex it is to contain the trade deficit," said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. "Fares are a small part of the image. There are many other moving parts and the rising dollar offsets some of the effects."

The decline in the Chinese currency will also exaggerate the impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs, making US goods even more expensive for Chinese customers.

"American exporters are doubly beaten by China's retaliatory tariffs and dollar appreciation in terms of their competitiveness in Chinese markets," said economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, formerly head of China's International Monetary Fund department.

According to Trump's plan, the tariff pain on the $ 200 billion batch of Chinese goods will grow on January 1, 2019, rising from the original 10 percent to 25 percent. If there are no signs of diplomatic progress by then, more companies could switch their orders from Chinese suppliers to factories in countries like Vietnam or India, executives said.

"We have not seen a significant shift in customer supply chains yet, but as the situation continues for a long time, we expect customers to diversify their supply chains, and perhaps some trading patterns are also changing," said Rajesh Subramaniam, executive vice president FedEx, investors last week.

How the President pursues his uncompromising approach to China, Executives grow increasingly frustrated. The United States Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and the National Retail Federation were among those who gave the use of Fares costly and counterproductive.

What is RBI's plan for Rupee at record low under pressure to curb rout..??

 বাং

Rupee Collapses To Lifetime Low Of 72.91 Against US Dollar: 10 Points
Currencies And Forex

INR Vs USD: The rupee sunk to an all-time low of 72.91 against the US dollar after opening at 72.87 earlier in the day.

Updated : September 12, 2018 10:05 IST

Story Highlights

• Rupee has weakened about 12% this year
• RBI has been intervening in forex market regularly to smooth volatility
• Foreigners have sold net $6.5 billion so far this year

The domestic currency continued to sink at the forex market on Wednesday. The rupee sunk to an all-time low of 72.91 against the US dollar after opening at 72.87 earlier in the day. The domestic currency was quoting 22 paise lower at a fresh record low of 72.91 against the US dollar in morning trade amid surging crude oil prices and uanabated foreign fund outflows, reported news agency Press Trust of India (PTI). Escalating trade war concerns, consistent dollar demand from banks and importers, mainly oil refiners, following higher crude oil prices, kept the rupee under pressure, dealers were quoted as saying in the PTI report.

Here are 10 things you should know about the rupee-USD rate:

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2. On Tuesday, the rupee touched a fresh lifetime low of 72.75, before settling at 72.70, an all-time closing low.
3. The rupee has been hitting multiple lows almost every day this month, thus becoming the worst performing Asian currency this year.
4. The rupee has weakened about 12 per cent this year, according to a report by news agency Reuters.
5. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been intervening in the forex market regularly to smooth volatility. The intervention has taken a toll on foreign exchange reserves which fell to $400 billion in August -- enough to cover eight months of imports, according to a report by news agency Bloomberg.
6. The current account deficit hitting a five-year high and a worsening balance of payments that slipped into the red in April-June for the first time in six quarters has hit the rupee hard.
7. The RBI is considering turning to wealthy Indians living abroad, like it did in 2013 when a discounted swap window lured inflows of about $34 billion. A government official confirmed that this move was being considered to stem the rupee fall, stated the Bloomberg report.
8. Indian bonds also fell tracking a weaker rupee, which could stoke inflationary pressures given the rising cost of crude oil and other imported commodities, stated the Reuters report. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose to 8.19 per cent, its highest level since November 17, 2014.
9. Foreigners have sold a net $6.5 billion so far this year with most of the outflows in debt markets where investors have seen heavy mark-to-market losses due to the plunging rupee.
10. Meanwhile, the dollar index, against a basket of six major currencies, was 0.15 per cent lower at 95.128 on Wednesday.
11. Oil prices rose following a report that crude inventories in the United States fell and as looming sanctions against Iran raised expectations of tightening supplies, with top producer Russia warning of a "fragile" global crude market. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $69.81 per barrel at 0047 GMT, up 56 cents, or 0.8 per cent, from their last settlement. (With Agencies inputs)