The biggest Question of  2019 elections who will win next year? A breif report to explain pros and cons of BJP and INC Govt. based on Indian poll Analysis. 

There are fairly 2 options which are Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, Modi is not yet declared to be the PM candidate for NDA in the next elections but Rahul Gandhi is officially declared to be the PM candidate from UPA. People don't feel it would be a hard time to select one amongst these, even a 10 year old child would be able to select the one out of these. As far as the predictions from the major News channels and various Think tanks, there is a higher chance of NDA forming government at the Centre in 2019.
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Major reasons given by Indians were -

• Absence of Competitive opposition against the NDA.

• Rahul Gandhi is Not the perfect one for the PM candidate, options like Manmohan Singh and Shashi Tharoor are more popular.

• BJP able to form its roots in Goa, Bihar and other states by coalition.

• Also, the break in the Congress, many MLA & leaders breaking away from Congress.

There are many reasons some of which are very important reasons which I might have missed.

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  ●   Modi online Poll:

NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi-led BJP may retain power in the 2019 elections , but the magical majority mark may remain elusive for the saffron party. This is how many of the foreign brokerages are reading India’s electoral arithmetic in a changed political climate.

They see anti-incumbency and opposition unity are key threats to Modi’s ambition for a second term, as they can potentially cut on BJP seats vis-à-vis its 2014 kitty.

Brokerage CLSA has projected a loss of 10-80 seats for the BJP in the 2019 elections. It had won 282 in 2014. Nomura India in a July pegged BJP/NDA’s total seats in a wide range of 181-308 seats, the midpoint of which stands at 245, 27 short of a majority. UBS in May said the stock market's multiples were probably pricing in a Modi win in 2019.Stock investors will be keenly following the political developments in the runup to the election, as poll outcome had often taken the market by surprise in the past.

In 2004, opinion polls had indicated a repeat mandate for the Vajpayee-led NDA. BJP was so confident in 2004 and called an early election, showcasing its work through an ‘India Shining’ campaign, CLSA noted. But India elected a Manmohan Singh-led government to rule India for the next decade
8 key states to watch
CLSA says eight key states may cost BJP more than 50 seats. Out of them, Madhya Pradesh, UP, Gujarat and Rajasthan accounted for 147 BJP seats in 2014, or 52 per cent of all that BJP won. Vote share in these four states stood at 49 per cent but they accounted for 80 per cent of the seats.




“The party clearly gained from the Modi wave, where he was able to swing significant vote share in his/BJP’s favour. Equally, a split in non-BJP votes among several opposition parties helped, particularly in UP and partially in MP. Combined with the other large four states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Chhattisgarh, the party won 201 of the 282 seats in 2014. A potential vote-share swing, either due to anti-incumbency or other reasons, could have a large overall impact,” CLSA said. 

As Prime Minister Modi mobilises to win the re-election early next year, he and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are being buffeted for a lack of jobs, falling prices of agricultural commodities and rural wages, a tax reform that led to unemployment and a demonetisation exercise that sapped liquidity.Despite high economic growth, the fall of the rupee currency to record lows this year has led to a surge in prices of largely imported fuel, which is feeding into inflation. Nationwide protests have broken out because of the price rise.

"There's no improvement in our life. We eat two basic meals a day but struggle to save for soap and detergent," Misri Lal, 52, said in Bhomada village in central India's Madhya Pradesh state, where he earns $2 a day watching over a yellowish-green soybean farm.In a series of interviews in India's political heartland, the northern and central plains, many people said they had been disappointed by Modi's government. But in a nation of 1.3 billion people, it was difficult to estimate how far the disillusionment had spread and how much it could affect Modi and the BJP at the next general election.

Despite its fitful performance on the economy, the BJP remains robustly Hindu nationalist, which plays well among many voters. Modi's aides insist the party will not suffer in the election and will repeat the 2014 performance.They also say the BJP will do well in three big state elections due later in 2018, which could signal how things will go in the general election.Opinion polls predict Modi will stay in power but the gap against the opposition was narrowing."There's no improvement in our life. We eat two basic meals a day but struggle to save for soap and detergent.

      Rural Pain and Expectations:

The Modi administration has acknowledged that farmers are suffering in a country where agriculture is the biggest employer, engaging 263 million people or 55 percent of the total number of workers."Trends in inflation clearly show that farmers are under distress due to un-remunerative prices and need to be compensated appropriately," India's farm ministry said in a report sent to states last month and seen by Reuters news agency.Rural wages have weakened across India compared with a high growth period during the rule of the centre-left Congress party which aggressively promoted a rural jobs scheme that guaranteed every citizen paid work for at least 100 days in a year.

Economists say its effect has now levelled out.The second option is for all the parties including the Congress to come together and form a pre-poll Maha-gathbandhan to face the NDA. This is the ideal option even if it is without a declared candidate for the Prime Minister's post. The BJP will try its best to make the elections presidential and pose the question "Modi vs who?" The opposition should not fall in this trap. Modi should not be the issue in the next election; issues should be the issue, of which there are plenty. 

The opposition must have an alternative program; mererly criticizing the present regime without offering an alternative agenda is unlikely to impress the people. Thus, while a leader is not a must, an alternative agenda is a must for such an alliance.The third option is for regional parties to come together and form some kind of a federal front. They may accommodate other parties including the Congress in their alliance on the basis of their regional needs. The federal front, however, would also need to have an agenda of governance.Technically, there is a fourth option also. This consists of leaving the question of alliances to the dominant party or parties in each state. Even this is a better option than doing nothing at all. 

In a way, this has already happened in five major states: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which together account for 210 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014, the BJP had won 145 Lok Sabha seats in these states. In the recent by-elections, an alliance has already emerged in UP consisting of the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. These parties have contested the recent Lok Sabha and assembly by-elections together with stunning results. The Congress party however is not yet a part of this combination.

 In Bihar, the RJD and the Congress have already formed an alliance, again with impressive results in the assembly and the Lok Sabha by-elections held in recent months. In Jharkhand, opposition parties including the Congress have also come together and contested the recent assembly by-polls together with 100% results in their favour. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress and the JD(S) have formed an alliance and are in government together. 
The strength of this alliance was tested recently in the assembly elections held in Jayanagar where they defeated the BJP which had held the seat since 2008. If these alliances hold together during the Lok Sabha polls, the results will be very different from the 2014 elections, and if the trends in the by-elections are any indication, the BJP may end up with massive losses.