Modi-Putin Summit: 16 agreements to be signed for defence.
Whats new in India with the visit of Valdimir Putin. Modi-Putin Summit: What’s on the Agenda for India-Russia Defense Ties?
On Tuesday, Putin’s top foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov had confirmed that the Russian President will oversee the signing of the S-400 air defence systems deal.
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| Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin last met in Sochi, Russia for an informal summit on May 21 this year |
● HIGHLIGHTS
- •Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in Delhi for 19th Indo-Russian summit.
- •A Rs 40,000 crore deal to buy S-400 air defence missiles could be possibly signed.
- •The summit is held alternately in the two countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is arriving in India Thursday for a two-day annual India-Russia bilateral summit. During his visit, India and Russia are likely to sign about 20 pacts in areas ranging from defence, nuclear energy, space and economy. Putin is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday.One of the expected outcomes which will be announced is the joint India-Russia counter-terrorism exercise, Indra-2018, set to be held from November 18 to 28. On Tuesday, Putin’s top foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov had confirmed that the Russian President will oversee the signing of the S-400 air defence systems deal. This was the first official confirmation from the Russian government at the highest level of the deal, which is worth more than $5 billion, about the signing of the agreement.
The summit process between India and Russia started way back in 2000 and since then, the relationship has been elevated to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.” The India-Russia strategic partnership is important for a number of reasons, but the two countries also face significant challenges. The relationship in the last few years have undergone some big changes, not all of them positive. The key question therefore is to see if the age-old bilateral relationship is sturdy enough to withstand some of the current turbulence.
As Putin arrives in New Delhi, there is both excitement and uneasiness around the visit and what might come of it. There is excitement on both sides about a couple of important defense deals and there are plans to strengthen and streamline civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. But there is also anxiety in New Delhi about the growing Russia-China ties and what that could mean for India.
Several other defence deals are in the pipeline including those an inter-governmental agreement for the licensed-production of the AK-103 assault rifle in a government factory, a joint venture between Rostec, Russian Helicopters and HAL for the production of the Ka-226 light utility helicopters in Karnataka, four Talwar class frigates and two IL-78 transport planes to be used as AEW&C early warning aircraft.
Another significant projects include cooperation in the proposed International North-South Transport corridor which shortens the transit time for cargo between Mumbai and Europe by routing goods through Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. On August 15 this year, Prime Minister Modi announced the Gaganyaan programme, which will launch an Indian astronaut into space by 2022. ISRO officials say the astronauts will most likely be trained in Russia's Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Centre in Star City outside Moscow.
Moscow remains anxious about India’s changing strategic orientation, particularly its relationship with the United States, and New Delhi’s defense trade diversification policy, among other issues. Russia has failed to appreciate the Indian strategic calculation behind its closer strategic engagement with the United States and other partners such as Japan and Australia.
From India’s perspective, Russia remains an important strategic partner for a number of different reasons. The historical character of the bilateral relationship aside, there are several strategic factors that impinge on the Russia-India dynamic. For one, Russia remains the only partner that is still willing to give India critical technologies, such as a nuclear submarine. Two, the emerging Russia-China strategic relationship has important security consequences for India. Even as India is diversifying its defense trade partners, Russia still dominates the Indian defense inventory to the tune of about 70 per cent. This raises worries in India because of the changing nature of the Russia-China defense relationship.
This deal has been under threat because of the US’ CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) legislation, which seeks to sanction any country that does significant business with Russia in the defense or intelligence domains. Even though U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis has sought an exemption for India, and the U.S. Congress has given the U.S. administration the authority to waive CAATSA, it is up to the president to decide on whether such a waiver will be granted.
Irrespective of how the CAATSA sanctions may play out, India appears quite certain that it wants the S-400 because of the technological superiority of the system. India has explored a financial mechanism where India can make the payment in rupees rather than in U.S. dollars. Though the United States has not indicated how it will react to the S-400 deal, Washington has been somewhat understanding because India over the last few years has diversified its defense procurement and reduced its dependency on Russia to some extent, which is one of the conditions for gaining a CAATSA waiver.
Russia, for its part, appears quite confident that the deal will go through. Igor Korotchenko, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade noted that “the U.S. won’t impose sanctions on them because they don’t want the Indians to refuse to purchase American weapons in the future.”
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